Groups of remnants of the Assad regime on the Syrian coast launched attacks against public security forces, members of the Syrian Ministry of Defense, and civilians, resulting in hundreds of casualties. These attacks were not the first of their kind since the fall of the Assad regime, but they were the most violent and widespread to date. They were also the most dangerous due to the sectarian mobilization campaigns that accompanied them and the resulting violations against civilians, according to human rights reports. They also pose a significant risk of spillover into sectarian-based areas within Syria. While the intensity and geographic scope of the clashes have decreased, recent events carry extremely dangerous indicators that require the new administration to take them seriously and take measures to support stability in the coast as part of a roadmap for Syria’s stability.
Syria in the Eye of the Storm
The events on the coast were preceded by a regional clash over Syria between forces supporting and opposing the new regime, which can be seen in the Turkish-Iranian and Turkish-Israeli debate over Syria. Israel also interferes in Syrian domestic politics to weaken the central authority, through its pro-minority statements on the one hand, and its military movements in southern Syria on the other. These events also come amid frustration among the coastal population of the Alawite sect, who have been economically harmed by the restructuring of the public sector and state institutions. Furthermore, what happened cannot be separated from the context of the tension that erupted between the new regime and the Druze in Jaramana and Sweida, which has been contained for the time being. Meanwhile, no significant breakthroughs have yet been achieved in negotiations with the SDF regarding militarization and governance, pending a decisive US position. Amid this environment of regional competition over Syria and the widening gap between the parties and the new regime, groups of regime remnants have moved to destabilize the coast, both security-wise and socially, in an organized manner and with external cover, according to a security source told Al Jazeera.
Testing the New Era
A preliminary analysis of the clashes on the coast indicates a significant difference in the balance of power between the remnants of the regime and the military and security forces of the new regime, tilting in favor of the latter. This is evidenced by the inability of the attacking groups to impose and maintain control over geographical sectors or specific centers on the coast, as well as their failure thus far to draw the Syrian General Security Forces and Ministry of Defense fighters into a fully-fledged guerrilla war, exhausting them in an environment conducive to such warfare. Conversely, the existence of other objectives pursued by the remnants of the regime and their supporters cannot be ignored. These include creating sectarian strife between Sunnis and Alawites to disrupt the new regime and highlight its weak ability to adhere to international and regional red lines for post-Assad Syria, including the protection of minorities and preventing Syria from becoming a threat to its neighbors. This conclusion is reinforced by the warning by Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader for International Affairs, of the possibility of a civil war breaking out in Syria and the presence of preludes to the dismantling of the Syrian state, just days before the coastal events. Furthermore, attempts to project a monolithic narrative about the new regime, portraying it as having a clear religious identity that does not represent all Syrian components, cannot be ignored. This is an attempt to undermine its internal legitimacy and undermine Syria’s stability by deepening the societal and political rift along sectarian lines. Therefore, it was necessary to fabricate security incidents to inflame sectarian tensions. This unfortunately manifested itself in sectarian mobilization speeches on social media, chants during some demonstrations supporting the new regime, and violations against civilians on sectarian grounds during the pursuit of remnants of the regime, according to human rights reports.
Risks and Necessary Measures
Despite the declaration by a number of Arab countries of their support for the new administration in confronting the remnants of the regime, and the inclusion of President al-Sharaa’s speech as a benchmark for curbing violations, restoring security, and preserving civil peace, there are inherent risks and negative repercussions of the coastal events that cannot be ignored. These risks require urgent decisions and measures to preserve Syria’s stability. These include:
Fear of the coastal events spreading to inland areas and neighborhoods with intersecting sectarian lines. This requires the Public Security Forces to strengthen security measures to protect these areas and prevent the spread of clashes there, in addition to activating community participation in security efforts.
There is a fear that the new regime’s image will be damaged abroad, demonstrating its inability to adhere to the requirements of Syria’s stability and the protection of its components. This requires a media and diplomatic campaign to explain the truth of what happened, supported by evidence, and the formation of an official committee to investigate the violations that occurred and hold their perpetrators accountable through publicly available judicial procedures. This effort should be complemented by the activation of institutional and societal mechanisms for transitional justice to hold accountable perpetrators of crimes and human rights violators from within the former Assad regime. There is also a fear that a narrative of sectarian confrontation will be reinforced in the post-Assad era. This can be contained through several measures to promote civil peace and societal reconciliation, beginning with dialogues between local communities to dismantle hate speech and sectarian mobilization. This does not absolve the new regime’s administration of the responsibility of launching serious dialogues with the parties (local communities) to understand their concerns and work to expand the scope of joint work with them through the local administration. This requires greater inclusion of local residents in the management of their local affairs under the supervision of the central authority. It is also important to address hate speech and sectarian incitement by criminalizing such speech and holding those responsible accountable, while leveraging the expertise of civil society organizations with expertise in civil peace and peacebuilding.
