For reasons related to the increase in crises and conflicts worldwide, the growing number of people in need of relief and humanitarian aid, and the significant disparity between needs and requirements ([1]), Syrians will find themselves, in light of the political deadlock, facing complex entitlements and challenges. This requires them to be aware of the repercussions of this on the volume of services provided and the number of beneficiaries inside Syria, due to the worsening social and economic conditions of Syrians in refugee-hosting countries ([2]).
According to the 2024 Global Humanitarian Overview report issued by OCHA, approximately 308 million people worldwide are in need of humanitarian assistance, requiring $48.64 billion to assist 187.8 million people in need in 70 countries around the world through 36 coordinated response plans. 15.3% of the plan has been covered so far, with $7.42 billion in funding, 35% less than the same period last year ($11.40 billion). Meanwhile, total reported funding amounted to $4.34 billion, or 42% less than in 2023 ($7.44 billion). Reported funding from major donors also decreased in the first four months of 2024 compared to 2023.
This reduction will have repercussions on the Syrian file at both levels: the local level, such as worsening living conditions for the population and increasing waves of migration, increased militia activity, reliance on the war economy, and increased involvement in illicit activities such as drugs and weapons, and increased community violence such as theft, kidnapping, and extortion. This will negatively impact local security and stability indicators. The regional level will see increased economic pressure on host countries, increasing the likelihood of Syrian refugees returning to Syria, voluntarily or involuntarily, by taking restrictive measures. The stranglehold on them. The risk of drug proliferation in neighboring countries (Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq) is likely to increase, and their territories will be used as a transit point for drugs to the Gulf states and Europe.
In addition, Syrian relief and development actors will face a number of immediate challenges, including:
First: A severe food security crisis: The decrease in humanitarian funding since 2023 to $2.1 billion (39% of needs) contributed to the World Food Program reducing the number of people receiving assistance from 5.5 million to 3.2 million in mid-2023, a 40% reduction starting in July 2023. The program also announced the end of its general food assistance program across Syria in January 2024 due to a severe funding shortage. This decision represents the seventh reduction since the program began operating in Syria, and the largest of its kind.
Second: The extent of the greatest need: According to United Nations estimates, approximately 16.7 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance (up from an estimated 15.3 million in 2023), the highest number since 2011. 7.2 million people are internally displaced in various areas, including 2.05 million in overcrowded camps.
Third: Severe funding shortage: Only 8% of the funds requested to fund needs have been received. Of the $4.07 billion requested, $358 million has been raised by May 2024 to meet the immediate humanitarian needs of 10.8 million targeted people. As part of the adaptation to the funding shortfall, many local organizations in northwest Syria have been forced to suspend several of their service programs, lay off dozens of employees, and close offices in various cities and towns in the Aleppo and Idlib countrysides.
Fourth: The increasing need for services in neighboring countries hosting Syrian refugees. It is expected that more than 19 million people will require assistance in 2024, including approximately 6.4 million refugees and 12.9 million affected host community members. Due to declining funding and the need to identify strategic priorities, the 2024 funding request has been reduced to $4.1 billion compared to $5.8 billion in 2023, after reviewing requirements based on prioritized needs. As a result of the growing funding crisis, the number of Syrian refugee families in Lebanon receiving cash assistance has been reduced by approximately one-third in 2024. The World Food Programme in Jordan also announced a reduction in its monthly food assistance to 465,000 refugees in mid-July 2023, and the exclusion of approximately 50,000 others from monthly assistance, citing a lack of funding.
Fifth: The deterioration of services (water, sanitation, healthcare, electricity, education) for displaced individuals in collective centers, which will increase the risk of resorting to negative coping mechanisms. Approximately 2.3 million women of reproductive age, including 500,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women, will lose access to vital reproductive healthcare and maternity services. Approximately 2.5 million out-of-school children will lose the opportunity to return to school, threatening the future of an entire generation and depriving children of their basic right to education ([3]).
Although donor countries pledged €7.5 billion ($8.1 billion) in donations, grants, and loans at the eighth Brussels Conference on “Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region,” $3.8 billion was allocated for 2024 and $1.3 billion for 2025; However, this does not diminish the importance of being aware of the possibility of funding cuts and aid reductions. Therefore, it is important to note (as an urgent strategy) the need for political, humanitarian, relief, and development actors to accelerate their efforts to confront this challenge through a series of policies, including:
First: Operational alliances: This type of alliance ensures the independence of organizations, while also promoting concerted efforts and increasing coordination to complete any implementation project in the most effective manner. Northwest Syria needs this type of alliance to ensure that activities and projects are not duplicated and to contribute to achieving a broader vision based on leveraging the tools of allied actors.
Second: Syrian design of a comprehensive response and recovery plan: Syrian actors must develop a comprehensive plan to serve as a guide and reference for the requirements and priorities of response and recovery, operating according to the principles of integration and comprehensiveness, and serving as a basis for many of the required local visions at the development, economic, and social levels. This plan should be updated annually.
Third: Multi-dimensional and multi-directional advocacy policies: Working in parallel with traditional advocacy (based on highlighting the scale of suffering and its requirements) on smart advocacy (based on the idea of coalitions to maximize benefits and expand advocacy geographically and sectorally), in addition to designing grassroots and media networks that advocate for strengthening the early recovery system alongside humanitarian response.
Fourth: Economic empowerment policies: Based on developing statistical tools and collecting information sectorally and geographically, supporting small and medium enterprises and providing vocational training opportunities to create job opportunities for the population and reduce their dependence on foreign aid, and implementing basic infrastructure projects, including water, sanitation, electricity, health, education, and public services, to enhance economic recovery and improve the living conditions of the population.
