This research examines the transformations that Idlib witnessed from 2011 until the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. It begins by tracing the historical and social background of Idlib, then analyzes the rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the transformations in its leadership, and its role in reshaping the military and political landscape. It also reviews the nature of alliances and rivalries between factions, as well as the regional and international factors that contributed to making Idlib the “last shield of the revolution.” Finally, it sheds light on the “Operation Deterrence of Aggression” campaign, which was launched from Idlib and ended with the overthrow of the regime in Damascus. This research demonstrates how Idlib has served as a model for understanding the entire Syrian revolutionary process and its complexities, including efforts to build a model of local governance and opportunities to restructure the state on new foundations.
The Syrian arena has witnessed fundamental transformations since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011. Idlib was one of the most important areas that fought decisive battles against the Syrian regime, becoming a stage for fundamental transformations that laid new foundations for the meaning of the popular movement in Syria. Before the outbreak of protests, Idlib was known for its rural social structure and agricultural prominence, in addition to its border location with Turkey, which gave it strategic importance in various political phases of the Syrian state. With the rise of the peaceful movement at the beginning of the revolution, Idlib’s central role emerged in embracing diverse revolutionary movements. Later, as the regime reasserted control over most of Syria’s countryside and liberated cities, one after the other—from Aleppo to the Ghouta of Damascus, Daraa, Homs, and Deir ez-Zor—opposition factions, both peaceful and armed, found in Idlib a nurturing environment and space to reorganize their ranks and assert their demands to confront the regime.
With the increasing security and military pressure, Idlib underwent a series of changes in local authorities and armed factions. This led to the emergence of a state of competition between revolutionary groups, and the emergence of new alliances and phenomena reflecting the interplay between internal factors and external interventions. These factions initially took on a diverse character; From forces with nationalist references emerging from the Free Syrian Army, to Islamist jihadist organizations, to factions with national or local Islamist leanings seeking to consolidate their influence on the ground, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged from a merger of armed groups with jihadist roots into an organized entity with a pragmatic discourse, able to leverage local and international factors to consolidate its presence. This qualitative shift for HTS represented a radical shift in the management of Idlib’s security and administrative affairs, contributing to the reshaping of the revolutionary space within the province. With the decline of the authority of other factions, Idlib gradually transformed into a major stronghold for the rebels and the armed opposition, and was able to play a leading role in the battle to liberate Damascus.
This paper focuses on reviewing the pivotal stages that preceded the liberation of Damascus through three main axes: First, it traces the historical and political trajectory of Idlib since 2011, highlighting the social and economic characteristics that made it fertile ground for the rise of popular resistance. Second, it examines internal developments in the province, including the shift in power and the diversity of factions. Third, it reviews the pivotal role Idlib played in the liberation process, leading to the overthrow of the Assad regime in December 2024. Through this approach, we seek to understand the complex mechanisms that shaped the liberation process from Idlib to Damascus, and how they were reflected in the balance of power in Syria, as well as drawing possible lessons for the phase of reconstruction and national reconciliation.
